The Three Trillion Dollar War

It's called the trillion dollar stimulus package.

The collective dollar value of BRIC consumers is estimated conservatively at just over 4 trillion, possibly 4.5 trillion.

It was hard work engineering a five trillion dollar deterioration in America s fiscal position.

For example, U.S. farmland had a total value of 1.9 trillion in 2010, compared with 16.5 trillion for the US stock market and 16.6 trillion for the US housing market.

One shudders to think what lessons the US financial sector will draw if, after the multi trillion dollar bailout, there are only superficial, toothless reforms.

Estimates of the losses on US loans and securities range from under 1 trillion to almost 4 trillion.

According to the IMF, China s GDP will be 17.6 trillion in 2014, outstripping US output of 17.4 trillion.

One Canadian dollar equals 0.73 US dollars.

For this, the US alone spent up to 3 trillion.

Official foreign exchange reserves will soon reach US 2 trillion.

Finally, investors are adding nearly a trillion dollars worth of net dollar securities to their positions every year, thus increasing the risk of continued dollar accumulation.

Especially as the dollar lost its sacred place as a store of value under the Bush administration, rebalancing these multi trillion dollar portfolios entails selling off dollar holdings, contributing to the dollar s weakening.

Fully two thirds of that total around 2 trillion is invested in dollar based assets, largely US Treasuries and agency securities (i.e., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

Or will they simply push for cosmetic reforms the minimum required to justify the mega trillion dollar bailouts?

Or will they simply push for cosmetic reforms  the minimum required to justify the mega trillion dollar bailouts?

The Financial Stability Board has estimated that total global shadow banking assets in 2011 amounted to 67 trillion, with the US accounting for 23 trillion, the eurozone for 22 trillion, and the United Kingdom for 9 trillion.

In our new book The Three Trillion Dollar War , Harvard s Linda Bilmes and I conservatively estimate the economic cost of the war to the US to be 3 trillion, and the costs to the rest of the world to be another 3 trillion far higher than the Bush administration s estimates before the war.

The weakening US dollar is pushing the dollar price of oil higher as oil exporters purchasing power in non dollar regions declines.

It would be worth nearly 3 trillion in social good yielding an enormous 34 of benefits for every dollar spent.

America s total debt exceeds 39 trillion dollars, or roughly 3.5 times US GDP.

The US Defense Department has valued Afghanistan s untapped mineral deposits at 1 trillion.

Moreover, the Lebanese pound is pegged to the US dollar.

The total foreign debt of US residents (most of which is in US dollars) is above 7 trillion.

My latest estimates are 3.6 trillion in losses for loans and securities issued by US institutions, and 1 trillion for the rest of the world.

Third, dollar funded carry trades are pushing the US dollar sharply down, and there is an inverse relation between the value of the dollar and the dollar price of commodities the lower the dollar, the higher the dollar price of oil, energy, and other commodities including gold.

Third, dollar funded carry trades are pushing the US dollar sharply down, and there is an inverse relation between the value of the dollar and the dollar price of commodities the lower the dollar, the higher the dollar price of oil, energy, and other commodities including gold.

For now, the US dollar remains the most important international currency.

In fact, the initiative is expected to spend US 5 trillion in the next five years alone, and in Asia, the investment will be up to US 2.5 trillion over the next decade.

The dollar is declining because only a more competitive dollar can shrink the US trade deficit to a sustainable level.

Chinese demand for Treasuries has enabled the US to increase its government debt almost threefold over the last decade, from roughly 6 trillion to 16.7 trillion.

In the two decades that followed, America s debt usually was around 3 trillion, rising or falling with the exchange rate of the dollar.

The 200 Trillion Question

Their aggregate GDP stands at around 11 trillion, or about 80 of the US level.

These inflows are expected to top US 1 trillion in the not so distant future.

Currently, the US dollar remains dominant. Most US exports and imports are denominated in dollars, and the dollar is extensively used in trade that does not involve America.

It is said that the International Monetary Fund, which earlier this year revised upward its estimate of bank losses, from 1 trillion to 2.2 trillion, will announce a new estimate of 3.1 trillion for US assets and 0.9 trillion for foreign assets, figures very close to my own.

The strong dollar policy represents an especially egregious example of an economic myth it seems to suggest that the US Treasury could, and would, maintain the strong dollar, and that a strong dollar is good for the US.

The US also lost interest in the scheme as the dollar strengthened.

Only US exports have maintained some traction, thanks to the weaker dollar.

One answer, of course, is a complete collapse of the US dollar.

NEW YORK A year ago, I predicted that the losses of US financial institutions would reach at least 1 trillion and possibly go as high as 2 trillion.

Cutting early will cost 17.8 trillion, whereas cutting later will cost just 2 trillion.

Cutting early will cost 17.8 trillion, whereas cutting later will cost just 2 trillion.

Another Fed governor, Jeremy Stein, has pointed out that foreign banks have dollar liabilities of roughly 8 trillion, much of it short term wholesale funding.